Likely Voters

Daily Kos: If it weren't for that critical component of modern political public opinion polling known as the "likely voter" screen, the banner polling headline today would be that, despite the Paul Ryan "bump" and a mammoth spending advantage, Mitt Romney still trailed Barack Obama in the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll of the presidential race by a gaudy 52-43 margin. 

Alas, said "likely voter" screen does exist, so instead, the headlines (as they have been for most of this cycle) will warn of a coin flip race, with the president staked to a mere 49-47 lead over the Republican challenger. Even worse, it is inevitable that some in the chattering classes will talk of a "bounce" for Romney since the last poll, which showed Obama up 52-45.

Such talk of movement in Mitt's direction is analytical malpractice, of course, because the previous CNN/OR poll did not have said likely voter screen. In the only apples-to-apples comparison we have here (RV to RV), it is the president whose standing has incrementally improved.

Of course "likely voters" these days includes Americans whom the GOP will not likely be able to rob of the right to vote.